128 districts that will change the outcome of this election

Below you will find the list of 128 swing districts and our vote recommendation in each.

You can click on each recommendation to see more details.

Click here to read the methodology we used to make our recommendations. Or read this summarized version:

To come up with a recommendation I used:

  • Publicly available riding-level opinion polls data. Latest polls take precedence
  • 2011 election results, if supported by threehundredeight.com projections
  • When threehundredeight.com projections conflicts with 2011 election results, I review previous election results (2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008) for the riding voting trend and the reason behind the conflict. This is especially important with the surge in support for the Liberals to levels not seen since the 2006 election results

Click here to find out what riding you're in, and to see if you're registered to vote.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
LabradorLiberal

Prince Edward Island

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
EgmontLiberal

Nova Scotia

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Central NovaLiberal
Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit ValleyLiberal
South Shore--St. Margaret'sLiberal
West NovaLiberal

New Brunswick

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
FrederictonLiberal
Fundy RoyalNDP
Madawaska--RestigoucheLiberal
Miramichi--Grand Lake*Liberal
Moncton--Riverview--DieppeLiberal
New Brunswick SouthwestLiberal
Saint John--Rothesay*Liberal
Tobique--MactaquacLiberal

Quebec/Québec

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Ahuntsic--Cartierville*Liberal
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia*Liberal
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel*NDP
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-CharlesNDP
Jonquière*NDP
Lac-Saint-Jean*NDP
Lévis--Lotbinière*NDP
Louis-Saint-LaurentNDP
Mégantic--L'ÉrableNDP
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-LoupNDP
PontiacNDP
Portneuf--Jacques-CartierNDP
Richmond--ArthabaskaNDP

Ontario

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Ajax*Liberal
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill1Liberal
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte*Liberal
Bay of Quinte*Liberal
Brampton Centre1Liberal
Brampton East*Liberal
Brampton North*Liberal
Brampton South1Liberal
Brampton WestLiberal
Brantford--Brant*Liberal
CambridgeLiberal
Chatham-Kent--Leamington*Liberal
Don Valley EastLiberal
Don Valley North1Liberal
Don Valley WestLiberal
Dufferin--CaledonGreen
Eglinton--LawrenceLiberal
Elgin--Middlesex--LondonNDP
EssexNDP
Etobicoke CentreLiberal
Etobicoke--LakeshoreLiberal
Glengarry--Prescott--RussellLiberal
Haldimand--NorfolkLiberal
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas*Liberal
Kanata--Carleton*Liberal
KenoraLiberal
King--Vaughan1Liberal
Kitchener CentreLiberal
Kitchener South--Hespeler1Liberal
Kitchener--ConestogaLiberal
London North CentreLiberal
London WestLiberal
Markham–Stouffville*Liberal
Milton1Liberal
Mississauga Centre1Liberal
Mississauga East--CooksvilleLiberal
Mississauga--Lakeshore*Liberal
Mississauga--Erin Mills*Liberal
Mississauga--Malton*Liberal
Mississauga--StreetsvilleLiberal
Nepean*Liberal
Newmarket--AuroraLiberal
Nipissing--TimiskamingLiberal
Northumberland--Peterborough South*Liberal
OakvilleLiberal
Oakville North--Burlington*Liberal
Orléans*Liberal
OshawaNDP
Ottawa West--NepeanLiberal
Perth--WellingtonLiberal
Peterborough--Kawartha*Liberal
Pickering--Uxbridge*Liberal
Richmond HillLiberal
Sarnia--LambtonNDP
Sault Ste. MarieLiberal
Scarborough CentreLiberal
St. CatharinesLiberal
Vaughan--Woodbridge*Liberal
Waterloo*Liberal
Whitby*Liberal
WillowdaleLiberal
York CentreLiberal

Manitoba

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley*Liberal
Elmwood--TransconaNDP
Kildonan--St. PaulNDP
Saint Boniface–Saint Vital*Liberal
Winnipeg SouthLiberal
Winnipeg South CentreLiberal

Saskatchewan

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill RiverNDP
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan*NDP
Regina--Lewvan*NDP
Regina--Qu'AppelleNDP
Saskatoon West*NDP
Saskatoon--Grasswood*NDP
Saskatoon--University*NDP

Alberta

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Calgary CentreLiberal
Calgary Confederation*Liberal
Calgary Forest Lawn*Liberal
Calgary Signal Hill*Liberal
Calgary Skyview*Liberal
Edmonton CentreNDP
Edmonton Griesbach*NDP
Edmonton Manning1NDP
Edmonton Mill Woods*Liberal
Edmonton Riverbend*Liberal
Edmonton West*Liberal
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake*Liberal
LethbridgeNDP
St. Albert–Edmonton*Liberal

British Columbia

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Burnaby North--Seymour*NDP
Cariboo--Prince GeorgeNDP
Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola*NDP
Chilliwack--Hope*NDP
Cloverdale--Langley City1Liberal
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam*NDP
Courtenay--Alberni*NDP
Delta1Liberal
Fleetwood--Port KellsLiberal
Kamloops--Thompson--CaribooNDP
Kelowna--Lake CountryLiberal
Kootenay--ColumbiaNDP
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon1NDP
North Island--Powell River*NDP
North Okanagan--Shuswap*NDP
North VancouverLiberal
Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge*NDP
Richmond Centre*Liberal
South Okanagan--West Kootenay*NDP
South Surrey--White Rock*Liberal
Steveston--Richmond East*Liberal
Vancouver SouthLiberal
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky CountryLiberal

Yukon

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
YukonLiberal

Nunavut

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
NunavutLiberal

  • 1 New District: one of the 30 new electoral districts added across Canada
  • * District new name, please check All Districts page for the district old name