Our Methodology and Criteria

  To come up with a recommendation I used:

  • Publicly available riding-level opinion polls data. Latest polls take precedence as the long as the poll result is higher than the margin of error
  • 2011 election results, if supported by threehundredeight.com projections
  • When threehundredeight.com projections conflicts with 2011 election results, I review previous election results (2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008) for the riding voting trend and the reason behind the conflict. This is especially important with the surge in support for the Liberals to levels not seen since the 2006 election results


When building our methodology and party selection criteria I have 3 main objects:

1 To better reflect each district’s voting preferences.

2 To maximize the number of progressive MPs

3 To keep each progressive party’s share of the vote (same overall number of ballots as much as possible.).

To accomplish this, we have:

  • identified 63 districts (from 2011 Elections) where the Combined Progressive Vote (CPV) is greater than that of the conservatives
  • identified another 65 districts (using available poll data) where the projected combined progressive vote is greater than that of the conservatives
  • recommended a progressive MP for each one of the 338 ridings to cement the already positive results in the ridings that already have a progressive incumbent MP, and raise a challenge in the rest

    • In most cases, we recommended voting for the progressive party with the most votes in a district. In ridings that are solidly conservative, we switched to the second or the third progressive party to make sure each part will keep, at the very least, the number of ballots they received in the last election.

    All exceptions to these criteria is detailed in the comments field in the riding’s detailed information page .

Thursday Sept. 17th: Please check the methodology FAQ, I tried to answer most of the questions I received regarding our criteria.

FAQ

 What are trying to achieve by advocating strategic voting?

  • Strengthen the position of the incumbent progressive MPs in their ridings.
  • Win the 63 swing ridings that was lost due to vote splitting.
  • Encourage progressives to vote, by showing that we can make a difference in all 338 electoral districts.
  • Support strategic voting in each and every riding to prevent party consolidation on the center/center-left, as we saw on the right. No one wants a two party system.

 Why are you asking me to vote for the Green Party (GPC) when it came third in the last election?

For strategic voting to work, some Green and Liberal voters in certain ridings will be voting NDP; to keep the number of ballots each party received the same, an NDP voter in another riding should vote Green or Liberal. I’m only advocating for a vote for the progressive party that came second or third when the riding is not in contest, i.e. it has been won by the Conservatives with 55 percent or more in the last election.

 Are you going to take into account, local poll results or will you be using 2011 election results only as the base of your recommendations?

Yes, I did take into account independent, consistent and confirmed poll trends. I will be adjusting my recommendations if it is warranted.

 Why are you advocating strategic voting not only in the swing ridings but also in all electoral districts?

To make sure each one of the three progressive parties receive at least the same number of ballots as they did in the last election (see the table below). A vote for the Green party in a riding that is not in contest by any of the three progressive parties, allow a Green party voter to vote Liberal or NDP when the vote is needed to change the riding election outcome. In this case, every vote will make a difference.

This also could produce surprises, as more progressives will vote knowing that their vote will count this time after eliminating vote splitting.

Party/Ballots Actual With Strategic Voting
Liberal 2,783,076 2,780,487
Green 572,095588,047
NDP 4,512,4114,499,048

 If you are recommending the second or third candidate in a riding that was won by the Conservatives with more than 55 percent in the last election but it is in play this time, would you be changing your recommendation?

Yes I did.

 If a riding that was not a swing riding in 2011, and polling prove it to be in play, would you be adding it to the list of swing electoral districts?

I did, I added 65 more ridings to the swing districts list based on polls data, but remember I’m asking for strategic voting in all 338 ridings with special attention to be given to the swing ridings.

 Why have you left some ridings without recommendation?

When the polls suggest that both the Liberals and the NDP are competing for the first spot in a riding and the Conservatives are non-viable, I leave the riding without a recommendation.