86 districts that will change the outcome of 2021 election

Below you will find a list of 61 swing districts and 25 progressive won, but with a less than five percent margin, and our vote recommendation in each.

You can click on each recommendation to see more details.

Click here to read the methodology we used to make our recommendations. Or read this summarized version:

To come up with a recommendation I used:

  • Publicly available riding-level opinion polls data. Latest polls take precedence
  • 2019 election results, if supported by available opinion polls
  • When polling data conflicts with 2019 election results, I review previous election results (2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015) for the riding voting trend and the reason behind the conflict.

Click here to find out what riding you're in, and to see if you're registered to vote.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)

Prince Edward Island

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)

Nova Scotia

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Cape Breton--CansoLiberal
Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit ValleyLiberal
Sydney--VictoriaLiberal
West NovaLiberal

New Brunswick

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
FrederictonGreen
Fundy RoyalLiberal
Miramichi--Grand LakeLiberal
Saint John--RothesayLiberal

Quebec/Québec

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--EeyouLiberal
Argenteuil--La Petite-NationLiberal
Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île d’Orléans--CharlevoixLiberal
Berthier--MaskinongéNDP
Brome--MissisquoiLiberal
Châteauguay--LacolleLiberal
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-MadeleineLiberal
HochelagaLiberal
JonquièreNDP
La PrairieLiberal
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyneLiberal
Longueuil--Saint-HubertLiberal
MontarvilleLiberal
QuébecLiberal
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les BasquesNDP
Rivière-des-Mille-ÎlesLiberal
Saint-Hyacinthe--BagotLiberal
SheffordLiberal
SherbrookeLiberal
Thérèse-De BlainvilleLiberal
Trois-RivièresLiberal

Ontario

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond HillLiberal
Barrie--InnisfilLiberal
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-MedonteLiberal
Bay of QuinteLiberal
Brantford--BrantLiberal
Bruce--Grey--Owen SoundLiberal
CarletonLiberal
Chatham-Kent--LeamingtonLiberal
Dufferin--CaledonLiberal
DurhamLiberal
EssexNDP
Flamborough--GlanbrookLiberal
Haldimand--NorfolkLiberal
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--BrockLiberal
Hastings--Lennox and AddingtonLiberal
Huron--BruceLiberal
KenoraLiberal
King--VaughanLiberal
Kitchener--ConestogaLiberal
Lanark--Frontenac--KingstonLiberal
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau LakesLiberal
Markham--UnionvilleLiberal
Niagara CentreLiberal
Niagara FallsLiberal
Niagara WestLiberal
Northumberland--Peterborough SouthLiberal
OshawaNDP
Parry Sound--MuskokaLiberal
Perth--WellingtonLiberal
Peterborough--KawarthaLiberal
Richmond HillLiberal
Simcoe NorthLiberal
Simcoe--GreyLiberal
Wellington--Halton HillsLiberal
York--SimcoeLiberal

Manitoba

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--HeadingleyLiberal
Kildonan--St. PaulLiberal
Winnipeg SouthLiberal

Saskatchewan

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill RiverNDP
Saskatoon WestNDP

Alberta

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Edmonton CentreLiberal

British Columbia

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
Central Okanagan–Similkameen–NicolaLiberal
Cloverdale--Langley CityLiberal
Coquitlam--Port CoquitlamLiberal
Fleetwood--Port KellsLiberal
Kamloops--Thompson--CaribooLiberal
Kelowna--Lake CountryLiberal
Kootenay--ColumbiaNDP
Langley--AldergroveLiberal
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser CanyonLiberal
Pitt Meadows–Maple RidgeLiberal
Port Moody--CoquitlamNDP
Richmond CentreLiberal
South Okanagan--West KootenayNDP
South Surrey--White RockLiberal
Steveston--Richmond EastLiberal

Yukon

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)
YukonLiberal

Nunavut

Electoral DistrictPlease Vote For (Click for details)